Live record — AFL
The whole record. Every settled bet, every month we lost money, and the closing price beside the price we took.
120 settled AFL bets, March 2026 to August 2026. The equity curve on the home page is a simulation; this is the live money, and it is the less flattering of the two. This is the one to read.
Page built 24 Aug 2026, 12:16 AEST
CLV is the gap between the price we took and the price the market closed at. Ours is positive. Our profit is not. Both are below, and so is why.
Why the green number and the red one disagree
Closing line value asks one question: was the price we took better than the price the market settled on? A bookmaker's closing line is the most informed number it will ever publish — it has absorbed the team sheets, the late outs and everyone else's money. Beating it repeatedly is evidence a model found something before the market did.
Profit measures the same thing with far more noise. At 120 settled bets a handful of results moves the P/L by hundreds of dollars while barely touching the CLV. That is why professionals judge on the closing line first and the bank balance second — and it is why our record currently shows a +0.57% median CLV alongside -$212.70 in profit. We are publishing that gap rather than waiting for it to close. If the closing-line edge goes negative, this page will say so on the day it happens.
93 of 120 settled bets have a captured closing price from the same bookmaker. The mean (+5.24%) and the median (+0.57%) are 4.67% apart: a small number of big line collapses pull the mean up. The median is the typical bet, and it is the number to judge us on. 50.5% of those bets closed at a shorter price than we took.
Month by month
4 of the 6 months lost money. All 6 beat the closing line on average. 5 of 6 on the median, one flat.
The same months, as numbers
| MonthMonth | BetsBets | WinWin rate | P/LNet P/L | MedMedian CLV | MeanMean CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug '26August 2026 | 24 | 62.5% | +$48.41 | +1.80% | +4.89% |
| Jul '26July 2026 | 37 | 48.6% | -$101.40 | 0.00% | +4.22% |
| Jun '26June 2026 | 13 | 46.2% | -$96.96 | +2.78% | +6.43% |
| May '26May 2026 | 11 | 72.7% | +$92.84 | +1.19% | +11.39% |
| Apr '26April 2026 | 11 | 36.4% | -$86.15 | +0.31% | +3.44% |
| Mar '26March 2026 | 24 | 62.5% | -$69.44 | +7.29% | +7.61% |
The part nobody can fake
A win rate is a claim. A pair of prices is a receipt. Every row shows the odds we recorded the moment the edge was flagged and the same bookmaker's price at the close — both captured automatically, both checkable against the market that quoted them.
Results settle against official box scores, not against anybody's memory. Settled bets are never removed from the ledger, which is why the losing rows are still here. Stakes are quarter-Kelly against a single rolling bankroll — the dollar figures follow the edge and the bank, never a per-bet choice.
Every row says Disposals because Disposals is the only market currently staked with real money. The others run in shadow mode at zero stake and are held back until each clears its own calibration and closing-line gate — so this is the whole live record, not a slice of it.
All 50 of the most recent settled bets carry both prices. Where a closing price was never captured, the row shows a dash rather than a guess.
Swipe the table sideways for prices and results
| Date | Player | Took → closed | CLV | P/L | Result | Market | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug | Jacob Farrow | 1.88 → 1.88 | 0.00% | -$23.61 | LOST | Disposals 16+ | PointsBet |
| 15 Aug | Darcy Cameron | 1.65 → 1.44 | +14.58% | -$11.86 | LOST | Disposals 17+ | PointsBet |
| 15 Aug | Jai Newcombe | 1.63 → 1.63 | 0.00% | +$17.20 | WON | Disposals 23+ | Sportsbet |
| 15 Aug | Jai Newcombe | 1.53 → 1.40 | +9.29% | +$15.90 | WON | Disposals 22+ | Ladbrokes |
| 15 Aug | Harry Morrison | 1.80 → 1.56 | +15.38% | +$12.15 | WON | Disposals 16+ | PointsBet |
| 15 Aug | Harry Sheezel | 1.56 → 1.42 | +9.86% | -$13.41 | LOST | Disposals 25+ | PointsBet |
| 15 Aug | Toby Nankervis | 1.57 → 1.57 | 0.00% | +$11.14 | WON | Disposals 14+ | Sportsbet |
| 15 Aug | Toby Nankervis | 1.75 → 1.85 | -5.41% | +$16.20 | WON | Disposals 15+ | Sportsbet |
| 14 Aug | Luke Ryan | 1.63 → 1.65 | -1.21% | +$8.18 | WON | Disposals 18+ | PointsBet |
| 14 Aug | Jordan Clark | 1.90 → 1.90 | 0.00% | +$7.74 | WON | Disposals 20+ | Ladbrokes |
| 9 Aug | Rowan Marshall | 1.63 → 1.65 | -1.21% | -$26.20 | LOST | Disposals 18+ | PointsBet |
| 9 Aug | Liam Duggan | 1.80 → 1.80 | 0.00% | +$10.70 | WON | Disposals 16+ | PointsBet |
| 9 Aug | Harley Reid | 1.77 → 1.76 | +0.57% | +$12.08 | WON | Disposals 22+ | Sportsbet |
| 9 Aug | Touk Miller | 1.83 → 1.48 | +23.65% | +$8.79 | WON | Disposals 22+ | Ladbrokes |
| 8 Aug | Dion Prestia | 2.00 → 1.95 | +2.56% | -$12.25 | LOST | Disposals 19+ | PointsBet |
| 8 Aug | Jayden Short | 2.18 → 2.08 | +4.81% | -$9.58 | LOST | Disposals 21+ | Sportsbet |
| 8 Aug | Zach Merrett | 1.60 → 1.56 | +2.56% | +$9.29 | WON | Disposals 24+ | Sportsbet |
| 8 Aug | Willem Drew | 1.59 → 1.57 | +1.27% | +$8.13 | WON | Disposals 16+ | PointsBet |
| 6 Aug | Jy Simpkin | 1.71 → 1.53 | +11.76% | -$15.88 | LOST | Disposals 21+ | PointsBet |
| 2 Aug | Mason Redman | 2.50 → 2.70 | -7.41% | -$11.76 | LOST | Disposals 20+ | PointsBet |
| 2 Aug | Andrew Mcgrath | 2.20 → 1.88 | +17.02% | +$18.33 | WON | Disposals 19+ | PointsBet |
| 1 Aug | Jake Lloyd | 2.20 → 2.50 | -12.00% | -$8.00 | LOST | Disposals 18+ | PointsBet |
| 1 Aug | Brodie Grundy | 1.76 → 1.76 | 0.00% | +$13.63 | WON | Disposals 17+ | Sportsbet |
| 1 Aug | Brodie Grundy | 1.67 → 1.67 | 0.00% | +$11.50 | WON | Disposals 16+ | Ladbrokes |
| 30 Jul | Harry Perryman | 1.75 → 1.52 | +15.13% | -$12.55 | LOST | Disposals 15+ | Ladbrokes |
| 30 Jul | Jordan De Goey | 1.70 → 1.70 | 0.00% | -$25.42 | LOST | Disposals 20+ | Sportsbet |
| 30 Jul | Shaun Mannagh | 2.20 → 2.25 | -2.22% | -$12.91 | LOST | Disposals 18+ | PointsBet |
| 26 Jul | Mason Wood | 1.77 → 1.81 | -2.21% | +$14.13 | WON | Disposals 18+ | Sportsbet |
| 26 Jul | Max Hall | 1.73 → 1.73 | 0.00% | +$15.19 | WON | Disposals 20+ | Neds |
| 26 Jul | Levi Ashcroft | 2.16 → 1.88 | +14.89% | +$11.77 | WON | Disposals 19+ | Sportsbet |
| 25 Jul | Touk Miller | 2.17 → 1.90 | +14.21% | -$12.25 | LOST | Disposals 26+ | PointsBet |
| 24 Jul | Jordan Clark | 2.37 → 2.47 | -4.05% | -$8.83 | LOST | Disposals 22+ | PointsBet |
| 24 Jul | Liam Duggan | 2.21 → 2.21 | 0.00% | -$15.88 | LOST | Disposals 19+ | Sportsbet |
| 24 Jul | Luke Ryan | 2.20 → 1.83 | +20.22% | +$10.16 | WON | Disposals 20+ | PointsBet |
| 24 Jul | Tom Cole | 2.30 → 2.30 | 0.00% | +$14.79 | WON | Disposals 13+ | Sportsbet |
| 23 Jul | Ben Keays | 1.62 → 1.42 | +14.08% | -$11.38 | LOST | Disposals 14+ | Neds |
| 23 Jul | Jordan Dawson | 1.67 → 1.48 | +12.84% | +$7.15 | WON | Disposals 22+ | PointsBet |
| 23 Jul | Harry Perryman | 1.62 → 1.45 | +11.72% | +$7.17 | WON | Disposals 14+ | Neds |
| 23 Jul | Scott Pendlebury | 1.83 → 1.63 | +12.27% | +$6.90 | WON | Disposals 21+ | PointsBet |
| 19 Jul | Darcy Parish | 2.03 → 2.01 | +1.00% | $0.00 | VOID | Disposals 23+ | Sportsbet |
| 19 Jul | Kyle Langford | 1.88 → 1.10 | +70.91% | -$18.04 | LOST | Disposals 15+ | PointsBet |
| 18 Jul | Liam Duggan | 2.23 → 2.23 | 0.00% | +$14.15 | WON | Disposals 19+ | Sportsbet |
| 18 Jul | Jack Crisp | 1.65 → 1.44 | +14.58% | -$12.54 | LOST | Disposals 18+ | PointsBet |
| 17 Jul | Jordan Dawson | 1.67 → 1.77 | -5.65% | -$13.71 | LOST | Disposals 24+ | PointsBet |
| 17 Jul | Callum Mills | 1.67 → 1.59 | +5.03% | +$8.85 | WON | Disposals 22+ | PointsBet |
| 16 Jul | Tom Atkins | 1.55 → 1.55 | 0.00% | +$9.41 | WON | Disposals 16+ | Ladbrokes |
| 12 Jul | Darcy Parish | 1.75 → 1.67 | +4.79% | -$15.13 | LOST | Disposals 22+ | Sportsbet |
| 12 Jul | Zach Merrett | 1.69 → 1.67 | +1.20% | -$17.20 | LOST | Disposals 27+ | PointsBet |
| 12 Jul | Toby Nankervis | 1.58 → 1.59 | -0.63% | +$10.86 | WON | Disposals 14+ | PointsBet |
| 11 Jul | Tom Atkins | 1.71 → 1.71 | 0.00% | +$8.98 | WON | Disposals 16+ | PointsBet |
Most recent 50 settled bets of 120. Bookmaker names are attribution, not recommendations. CLV in this table is computed from the two prices in the row — taken ÷ close − 1 — so every row's arithmetic closes for anyone who checks it. A 0.00% row means the price did not move between our capture and the close.
The headline mean and median are the ledger's own per-bet CLV, recorded at settlement, and can differ slightly on a row where a closer-to-kickoff price was captured after the bet had settled. Across these 50 rows the two average +5.82% stored against +5.68% recomputed.
This page updates whether the numbers flatter us or not.
If that is the kind of thing you want on your side of the screen, start with the free tier — the ledger and the model's track record are open to every account.
Live AFL record, live bets only — internal shadow-mode bets, which carry no stake, are excluded. Odds shown are a historical record of prices already taken; bookmaker names appear for attribution and are not recommendations or offers. The page rebuilds at most every 5 minutes, and the figures it reads can be up to 5 minutes old themselves, so the build time at the top is the freshest claim we make.