Find Mispriced AFL Bets.
Back Them With a Plan.
Crux scans four bookmakers every AFL round, surfaces the player props where the price is wrong, and shows exactly how much to stake.
How It Works
From the team sheet to your bet, in seconds
We pull every price
Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes, Neds — checked every minute. Every player prop, every line, every price.
Team sheets · Player roles · Weather · NewsThe model runs
We've trained the model on years of AFL data — every disposal, mark, tackle, and goal. It uses recent form, who's playing, the weather, and the team sheet to predict how a player will go.
Trained on full historical seasons · Re-checked every weekCompare to the bookies
We line our prediction up against the bookie's price. If our number says the bet wins more often than the price suggests, that's an edge — and the bigger the gap, the bigger the edge.
Only bets where the maths is on your side · Top 10 per roundPlace the bet
Your top bets land in the dashboard and Discord. We tell you exactly how much to put on, sized to your bankroll. You just place it.
Stakes sized to your bankroll · Capped so one bad bet won't sink youWhy Crux
Sharp. Not lucky.
What makes Crux different from tipsters, gut feel, and "lock of the week" services.
Core algorithm
Built on years of AFL data
We've trained the model on every AFL match for the last four seasons — disposals, marks, goals, tackles, the lot. It learns what predicts a player going over their line and what doesn't, and gets re-checked every week against fresh results. The grunt work happens in the background; you just see the bets.
We spot tactical shifts early
If a player quietly moves into a new role, our system catches the stat shift and finds the value before the bookies update their odds.
Best price, every time
Same bet, four bookies, four different prices. We check all of them and only flag the bet at the book offering the best odds — so you never leave money on the table.
Right-sized stakes
We tell you exactly how much to put on each bet. Smaller for risky ones, bigger when the edge is huge — capped at 25% of your bankroll so one bad day can't wipe you out.
Odds checked every minute
All four bookies are watched continuously. Prices move, lines move, and we catch it before most punters have even opened the app.
Weather built into the maths
Rain changes the game — fewer marks, fewer goals, more tackles. We pull the forecast for every venue and adjust before you bet.
Model Backtest
The model works.
Not in theory. In practice.
Walk-forward backtest, March 2024 – April 2026. Model trained on pre-2024 AFL seasons, tested fully out-of-sample. Disposals market only · strict 10% edge threshold · conservative Eighth-Kelly staking (¹⁄₈ Kelly fraction) from a $10,000 starting bankroll. Backtests aren't live results — past performance doesn't guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly. · Last updated 7 May 2026
Simple, Transparent Pricing
Every plan starts with a 14-day free trial. No card required to try.
Free
Limited edge previews once your trial ends.
Best for testing product fit
- Full 14-day trial on signup
- Limited edge previews after trial
- Bet Ledger + Performance history forever
- No credit card required
No card. 14 days free. Cancel anytime.
Pro Monthly
Full dashboard access. Every edge, every round.
One winning bet per round covers the cost
- Every edge every round, ranked by strength
- Stake sizes worked out for you
- Tap any bet for the full why — form, matchup, weather, the lot
- Live track record dashboard
- Mobile app (iOS + Android)
- Discord alerts the moment edges land
- Cancel anytime
No card. 14 days free. Cancel anytime.
Season Pass
One payment, full 2026 season. March through the Grand Final.
Works out to ~$35/month
- Everything in Pro included
- Locked in for the whole 2026 season
- Priority Discord channel
- No monthly billing to worry about
One-time payment · Full season access
Questions. Answered.
Direct answers to the questions that matter before you use Crux as part of your weekly workflow.