● AFL 2026 · EVERY MAJOR BOOK
We price
the game.
Then we publish
the receipt.
One model prices every player prop and settles every bet it flags on a public ledger — won or lost.
THE MODEL’S LIVE AFL RECORD · 110 SETTLED · 60W – 50L
MEAN CLV +4.9% OVER 107 OF 110 · MAY 2026 — SEP 2026
JAMES SICILY
DISPOSALS 18+ · TAKEN $1.65
A +10.0 point edge — and it still lost. That is what a probability is.
THE REPLAY — HOW CRUX CALLS IT
Watch it work.
Then touch it.
One model, every major book — here is how it reads a slate. Illustrative board; the real ledger is public.
BOOK 48.8 · MODEL 47.6 · GAP −1.2
Priced about right — the model passes. Most props are.
BOOK 58.8 · MODEL 60.4 · GAP +1.6
Priced about right — the model passes. Most props are.
THE GAP
That gap is the biggest disagreement on the board — and it is why the bet was flagged. The model is walk-forward validated: it is never shown the future it is asked to predict.
THE CALL
Best price found, stake sized to your bankroll — you set the Kelly fraction, and no stake ever passes 25% of bankroll.
BOOK 54.1 · MODEL 52.0 · GAP −2.1
Priced about right — the model passes. Most props are.
BOOK 51.3 · MODEL 52.1 · GAP +0.8
Priced about right — the model passes. Most props are.
BOOK 47.6 · MODEL 46.7 · GAP −0.9
Priced about right — the model passes. Most props are.
Worked example — illustrative prices on real players, not live tips.
THE REAL LEDGER — EVERY SETTLED BET ↓FULL TIME — THE RECORD
The market moves.
Toward us.
One number tells you whether a price was any good before the result does. Here is ours, then every bet it was measured on, then the whole record underneath.
MEAN CLOSING-LINE VALUE · OVER 107 PRICED BETS
Closing-line value is how far the market moved toward Crux’s price by kickoff. When the books keep moving toward us after we flag a bet, our number was right before theirs was.
MEDIAN +0.57%50.5% BEAT THE CLOSE
PINNED · LATEST BET WITH BOTH PRICES19 SEPJAMES SICILYDISPOSALS 18+TAKEN $1.65 → CLOSED $1.65CLV 0.00%LOST −3.18u
HOVER OR DRAG THE STRIP
LAST 50 SETTLED · 50 PRICED HERE OF 107 ALL-TIMEALL-TIME MEAN +4.94%MEAN OF THESE 50 +5.11%
MARKET MOVED TOWARD USMOVED AWAYNO CLOSING PRICE CAPTURED — UNKNOWN, NOT ZERO
PRICE TAKEN VS THE SAME BOOKMAKER’S CLOSE; THE RULE IS THESE 50 BARS’ OWN MEAN. LINEAR TO +20%, 5 ABOVE IT COMPRESSED INTO THE TOP BAND TO +34% — NONE CLIPPED.
110
SETTLED LIVE
plus 2 voided
60W–50L
WON AND LOST
losses shown, none removed
-$3,771.37
NET P/L · MODELLED
ROI -6.00% · $62,907 turnover · ⅛-Kelly
54.5%
WIN RATE
average price 1.83
A sideways bankroll on 110 bets beside a positive closing-line value is what a real edge looks like at a small sample — and it is what this one looks like.
SIMULATED
LIVE — REAL BETS
WENT LIVE · 2 MAY 2026 · $17,402.65
SEPTEMBER 202627 SETTLED12W–15L-$3,973.96 MODELLEDMEAN CLV +6.42%MEDIAN +1.26%
3 of the 5 months lost money. All 5 beat the closing line on average. 4 of 5 on the median, one flat.
SIMULATED IS DASHED AND UNFILLED; LIVE IS SOLID. A BACKTEST IS A MODEL OF WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED; THE LIVE HALF IS WHAT DID. DOLLARS ARE MODELLED AT ⅛-KELLY ON THE CONTINUED BANKROLL.
The production model’s live AFL bets since 2 May 2026, dollars restated at ⅛-Kelly on the continued backtest bankroll.
1U = 1% OF THE MODELLED BANKROLL AT THE TIME OF THE BET · PAST RESULTS DON’T GUARANTEE FUTURE ONES. THE POINT IS THAT THEY’RE PUBLIC.
INSIDE THE TERMINAL — AFTER THE EDGE
Two screens.
One book.
Everything after the edge — the alert, the feed, your book, the grading — on the web and in your pocket, moving together. These are the screens, not drawings of them.
An edge clears the threshold you set, the phone says so once, and it opens onto the analysis — one bet to a URL: the price against the model’s number, his real last twenty games against the line, what the opponent concedes, the market check and a Kelly-sized stake. The bet in all four steps is a real winning bet from the public ledger, chosen for the demo.
One alert per edge per fixture · never between 22:00 and 08:00 AEST · at most ten a day · only above your threshold.
…and the same book on the web.
Web · iOS on the App Store
See plans ↓THE PRICE
The record is free.
The edges are $49.
The model’s settled AFL bets are public whether you pay or not. Paying opens the board, the analysis, the alerts, and your own book graded against the close.
FREE — NO CARD
$0
- My Book
- The model’s Track Record
- Two edges a round, from below the top three
See the record before you pay.
Nothing to cancel, ever.
CREATE FREE ACCOUNT →WHAT PRO OPENS · THE ANALYSIS, ONE PAGE PER BET
PRO
$49 / MONTH
$0 today · 14-day trial · then $49 a month
- Every edge, every round
- Stake sizes · 25% hard cap
- The analysis page, per bet
- Alerts ≤10 a day · quiet 22:00–08:00
- Your book graded vs the close
- Web and iOS
Cancel from your account any time · no lock-in
110 SETTLED · MEAN CLV +4.94% · THE MODEL’S LIVE AFL BETS, PUBLICCancel before day 14 and pay nothing.
PRO MONTHLY CANCELS ANYTIME · ANNUAL RENEWS YEARLY, CANCEL ANYTIME · INSTANT ACCESS. THE MODEL’S RECORD IS PUBLIC WHETHER YOU PAY OR NOT.
FREE ACCOUNT · NO CARD
Two taps and
you’re in.
2026 season live · model running every round
Type your email, type the six-digit code we send. About thirty seconds, no password, nothing to cancel. Free stays free.
YOUR EMAIL
BY SIGNING IN YOU AGREE TO OUR TERMS · WE NEVER SHARE YOUR EMAIL
COMMON QUESTIONS
Ask away.
What people want to know before they start.
TALK TO A PERSON
support@cruxterminal.comA real reply, usually from the person who built it. No bots, no ticket numbers.
Email supportWHAT YOU GET
Which sports do you cover?
AFL is the main event: it's the sport the model prices, where you get ranked edges with a suggested stake. Alongside it you get Insights feeds for AFLW, NRL, NBA, WNBA and MLB: form, streaks, matchups and the best available price, updated through the week. Those feeds show you what the data says without the model putting a number on it. NBA shows a season outlook until the season starts in October.
Do I get every sport when I subscribe?
Yes. One subscription opens everything: the AFL edge board and every Insights feed. There are no add-ons and no sport-by-sport tiers. As we add sports, they’re included.
Is there an app?
Yes: an iPhone app on the App Store, and the full dashboard on the web. Your book, alerts and settings are the same on both. There’s no Android app yet.
What does the free account include?
My Book, where you track your own bets and see them graded against the closing price; the model’s full public track record; and two edges a round from below the top three. No card, nothing to cancel. Free stays free.
TRUST AND THE MATHS
Is this a tipping service?
No. Tipsters give you their opinion. Crux gives you the numbers: where a bookmaker’s price sits against the model’s own probability, with a suggested stake sized to your bankroll, and a page of reasons behind every pick. You won’t win every bet; nobody does. Over enough bets, the edge decides the result, not the luck. The record above shows how that has gone, losses included.
How do I know the model actually works?
Because every bet it makes is published. The record above and the /proof page show the production model’s settled AFL bets: every win, every loss, the price it took and the price the market closed at. Nothing is added after the fact and nothing is removed. You can download the lot as a spreadsheet, and you don’t need an account to look.
Do I need to understand betting maths?
No. The board tells you which bets the model likes and suggests how much to put on. If you’re curious, tap any bet for the full page of reasons. If you’re not, you never have to.
Which bookmakers does it work with?
The major Australian bookmakers. We compare the same bet across every book that offers it and show you the best price. You can hide the books you don’t use in your Account settings.
MONEY, RULES AND SUPPORT
Can I cancel? What about refunds?
Cancel any time from your Account tab. The 14-day trial on Pro Monthly charges nothing today; cancel before day 14 and you’re never charged. After that, cancelling stops the next bill. Annual renews once a year and can be cancelled the same way. If a charge has gone wrong, email support@cruxterminal.com and a person will sort it.
Will it tell me when there’s a bet worth looking at?
Yes, if you want it to. Set your own edge threshold and you’ll get a push alert when an edge clears it: once per bet, never between 10pm and 8am, and never more than ten a day.
Is this legal in Australia?
Yes, for adults. Crux analyses public stats and published bookmaker prices. We’re not a bookmaker and never handle your money; the betting is between you and your licensed bookmaker.
How quickly do I get access?
About thirty seconds. Type your email, type the six-digit code we send, and you’re in.
Do you promote responsible gambling?
Yes. Crux is an analytics tool, not a guarantee. Every bet carries risk and past results don’t promise future ones. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, Gambling Help Online is free, 24/7: 1800 858 858, gamblinghelponline.org.au.
How do I get help?
Email support@cruxterminal.com. A real person reads it, usually the one who built Crux.
18+ · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE · SUPPORT: 1800 858 858 · GAMBLINGHELPONLINE.ORG.AU
THE LAST WORD
SETTLED
IN PUBLIC.
THE MODEL’S LAST 110 SETTLED BETS · PUBLIC
- SETTLED
- 110
- MEAN CLV
- +4.94%
- BEAT THE CLOSE
- 50.5%
- POPULATION
- THE MODEL’S LIVE AFL BETSpublic, win or lose
The bookies price hundreds of markets a round. They don’t get them all right. Every bet the model makes is graded against their closing price and published, win or lose.