Find the bets the
bookies got wrong.
Every prop. The top books. Re-priced all round, every round. The bets where our model beats the market — that's the bet.
Walk-forward backtest · 2024–26 · not live results
// 01 — HOW IT WORKS
Pull. Predict. Compare. Execute. How hundreds of markets a round become a handful of sized bets.
Pull
Every player prop across the top Australian books. Polled continuously during game windows. Hundreds of markets per round.
Plus: team sheets · CBA% per player · venue · weatherPredict
Six pillars predict how a player goes: recent form, venue history, opponent matchup, centre-bounce attendance trend, weather, and team news. Each pillar is a number. The numbers combine into a single probability — say, 64.2% to clear 25 disposals.
Trained on every AFL match 2022 → 2026 · Re-fit weeklyCompare
Model says 64.2% to hit. Sportsbet's price of $1.91 implies 52.4%, margin included. That gap is +11.8% EV. Whenever our number beats the book's, that's an edge — and we surface every one we find.
Every edge that clears, ranked strongest first.Execute
Each flagged bet comes with a stake size — quarter-Kelly against your bankroll, capped at 25%. Push alerts hit your phone the moment the model commits. You place it.
Quarter-Kelly · 25% cap · scaled to your bankrollSwipe to see all 4 steps
// 02 — INSIDE THE TERMINAL
See the whole desk. Edge Finder to settle-up — every bet priced, sized, tracked, and proven.
// 03 — CRUX EV ENGINE
Price the gap. Six pillars turn footy stats into a probability. When ours beats the bookie's price — that's the edge.
// MODEL vs MARKET
MODEL PROBABILITY
64.2%
after all 6 gates
IMPLIED BY ODDS
52.4%
$1.91 → 1/odds
The model says he clears 25 disposals 11.8 percentage points more often than the bookmaker is pricing. That gap is the edge.
+11.8%
edge vs market price
// 04 — WALK-FORWARD BACKTEST
Prove it. Trained on pre-2024 data, then walked forward, week by week, against rounds it had never seen.
Walk-forward backtest, March 2024 – April 2026. Model trained on pre-2024 AFL seasons, tested fully out-of-sample. Disposals market only · strict 10% edge threshold · conservative ⅛-Kelly staking — half the product's default, to keep the simulation conservative — from a $10,000starting bankroll. Backtests aren't live results — past performance doesn't guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly. · Last updated 15 May 2026
// 05 — PRICING
Own the edge. Start free. Upgrade when it pays for itself.
Pro starts with a 14-day free trial — $0 today, cancel before day 14 and you're charged nothing. The Season Pass is a single one-time payment.
Pro Monthly
Full dashboard. Every edge the model finds, every round.
One winning bet a round covers the sub.
- Every edge every round, ranked by strength
- Stake sizes worked out for you
- Tap any bet for the full why — form, matchup, weather, the lot
- Live Track Record dashboard
- CLV tracking on every settled bet
- Alerts when new edges land
- Cancel anytime
$0 today. Cancel before day 14, pay nothing.
Season Pass
One payment for the full season, March through the Grand Final — about $40 a month, $9 under monthly.
One payment. No monthly billing to think about.
One-time payment · Full season access
Or use the free tier after your trial — keep your Bet Ledger and the model track record.
// 06 — COMMON QUESTIONS
Ask away. What people want to know before they start.
The ones we get asked most. If something's missing, email support@cruxterminal.com.
Free account. No card. Walk away anytime.
Type your email, type the 6-digit code we send, you're in the dashboard. About 30 seconds.
Free account, no card, free forever. Want the full board? The 14-day Pro trial starts at pricing — $0 today, cancel before day 14, pay nothing.
// 01 — WALK-FORWARD BACKTEST
Prove it. Trained on pre-2024 data, then walked forward, week by week, against rounds it had never seen.
Walk-forward backtest, March 2024 – April 2026. Model trained on pre-2024 AFL seasons, tested fully out-of-sample. Disposals market only · strict 10% edge threshold · conservative ⅛-Kelly staking — half the product's default, to keep the simulation conservative — from a $10,000starting bankroll. Backtests aren't live results — past performance doesn't guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly. · Last updated 15 May 2026
// 02 — PRICING
Own the edge. Start free. Upgrade when it pays for itself.
Pro starts with a 14-day free trial — $0 today, cancel before day 14 and you're charged nothing. The Season Pass is a single one-time payment.
Pro Monthly
Full dashboard. Every edge the model finds, every round.
One winning bet a round covers the sub.
- Every edge every round, ranked by strength
- Stake sizes worked out for you
- Tap any bet for the full why — form, matchup, weather, the lot
- Live Track Record dashboard
- CLV tracking on every settled bet
- Alerts when new edges land
- Cancel anytime
$0 today. Cancel before day 14, pay nothing.
Season Pass
One payment for the full season, March through the Grand Final — about $40 a month, $9 under monthly.
One payment. No monthly billing to think about.
One-time payment · Full season access
Or use the free tier after your trial — keep your Bet Ledger and the model track record.
// 03 — INSIDE THE TERMINAL
See the whole desk. Edge Finder to settle-up — every bet priced, sized, tracked, and proven.
// 04 — HOW IT WORKS
Pull. Predict. Compare. Execute. How hundreds of markets a round become a handful of sized bets.
Pull
Every player prop across the top Australian books. Polled continuously during game windows. Hundreds of markets per round.
Plus: team sheets · CBA% per player · venue · weatherPredict
Six pillars predict how a player goes: recent form, venue history, opponent matchup, centre-bounce attendance trend, weather, and team news. Each pillar is a number. The numbers combine into a single probability — say, 64.2% to clear 25 disposals.
Trained on every AFL match 2022 → 2026 · Re-fit weeklyCompare
Model says 64.2% to hit. Sportsbet's price of $1.91 implies 52.4%, margin included. That gap is +11.8% EV. Whenever our number beats the book's, that's an edge — and we surface every one we find.
Every edge that clears, ranked strongest first.Execute
Each flagged bet comes with a stake size — quarter-Kelly against your bankroll, capped at 25%. Push alerts hit your phone the moment the model commits. You place it.
Quarter-Kelly · 25% cap · scaled to your bankrollSwipe to see all 4 steps
// 05 — CRUX EV ENGINE
Price the gap. Six pillars turn footy stats into a probability. When ours beats the bookie's price — that's the edge.
// MODEL vs MARKET
MODEL PROBABILITY
64.2%
after all 6 gates
IMPLIED BY ODDS
52.4%
$1.91 → 1/odds
The model says he clears 25 disposals 11.8 percentage points more often than the bookmaker is pricing. That gap is the edge.
+11.8%
edge vs market price
// 06 — COMMON QUESTIONS
Ask away. What people want to know before they start.
The ones we get asked most. If something's missing, email support@cruxterminal.com.
Free account. No card. Walk away anytime.
Type your email, type the 6-digit code we send, you're in the dashboard. About 30 seconds.
Free account, no card, free forever. Want the full board? The 14-day Pro trial starts at pricing — $0 today, cancel before day 14, pay nothing.
// THE LAST WORD
The bookies price hundreds of markets a round. They don't get them all right.
14 days free. $0 today. If the edges aren't there, walk away.