AFL 2026 · Player Props · 4 Bookmakers

Find Mispriced AFL Bets.
Back Them With a Plan.

Crux scans four bookmakers every AFL round, surfaces the player props where the price is wrong, and shows exactly how much to stake.

+12.8%
Return on stake
56.3%
Win rate
167
Settled bets
RD. 8 · AFL 2026 · Player Props
Scanning
Player
Edge
newJack Crisp
+11.9%
Harley Reid
+11.4%
Patrick Cripps
+8.7%
Marcus Bontempelli
+9.2%
Clayton Oliver
+7.8%
Zak Butters
+6.4%
3 more edges this round
Unlock with Pro
4 bookmakers · Best price auto-selected · Confidence ≥ 60%

How It Works

From the team sheet to your bet, in seconds

01
PULL

We pull every price

Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes, Neds — checked every minute. Every player prop, every line, every price.

Team sheets · Player roles · Weather · News
02
PREDICT

The model runs

We've trained the model on years of AFL data — every disposal, mark, tackle, and goal. It uses recent form, who's playing, the weather, and the team sheet to predict how a player will go.

Trained on full historical seasons · Re-checked every week
03
COMPARE

Compare to the bookies

We line our prediction up against the bookie's price. If our number says the bet wins more often than the price suggests, that's an edge — and the bigger the gap, the bigger the edge.

Only bets where the maths is on your side · Top 10 per round
04
EXECUTE

Place the bet

Your top bets land in the dashboard and Discord. We tell you exactly how much to put on, sized to your bankroll. You just place it.

Stakes sized to your bankroll · Capped so one bad bet won't sink you

Why Crux

Sharp. Not lucky.

What makes Crux different from tipsters, gut feel, and "lock of the week" services.

Core algorithm

Built on years of AFL data

We've trained the model on every AFL match for the last four seasons — disposals, marks, goals, tackles, the lot. It learns what predicts a player going over their line and what doesn't, and gets re-checked every week against fresh results. The grunt work happens in the background; you just see the bets.

We spot tactical shifts early

If a player quietly moves into a new role, our system catches the stat shift and finds the value before the bookies update their odds.

Best price, every time

Same bet, four bookies, four different prices. We check all of them and only flag the bet at the book offering the best odds — so you never leave money on the table.

Right-sized stakes

We tell you exactly how much to put on each bet. Smaller for risky ones, bigger when the edge is huge — capped at 25% of your bankroll so one bad day can't wipe you out.

Odds checked every minute

All four bookies are watched continuously. Prices move, lines move, and we catch it before most punters have even opened the app.

Weather built into the maths

Rain changes the game — fewer marks, fewer goals, more tackles. We pull the forecast for every venue and adjust before you bet.

Model Backtest

The model works.

Not in theory. In practice.

Edge ≥ 10%¹⁄₈ Kelly stakingDisposals modelOut-of-sample 2024–2026
Backtest equity — 167 bets, $10,000 start2024–2026 walk-forward · out-of-sample
$10,000$21,812
+$11,812
Net profit on $10,000 start
56.3%
Win rate · 167 bets
+12.8%
Return on stake
2.18x
Bankroll multiplier

Walk-forward backtest, March 2024 – April 2026. Model trained on pre-2024 AFL seasons, tested fully out-of-sample. Disposals market only · strict 10% edge threshold · conservative Eighth-Kelly staking (¹⁄₈ Kelly fraction) from a $10,000 starting bankroll. Backtests aren't live results — past performance doesn't guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly. · Last updated 7 May 2026

Simple, Transparent Pricing

Every plan starts with a 14-day free trial. No card required to try.

Free

$0

Limited edge previews once your trial ends.

Best for testing product fit

  • Full 14-day trial on signup
  • Limited edge previews after trial
  • Bet Ledger + Performance history forever
  • No credit card required

No card. 14 days free. Cancel anytime.

Most Popular

Pro Monthly

$49/month

Full dashboard access. Every edge, every round.

One winning bet per round covers the cost

  • Every edge every round, ranked by strength
  • Stake sizes worked out for you
  • Tap any bet for the full why — form, matchup, weather, the lot
  • Live track record dashboard
  • Mobile app (iOS + Android)
  • Discord alerts the moment edges land
  • Cancel anytime

No card. 14 days free. Cancel anytime.

Season Pass

$249/season

One payment, full 2026 season. March through the Grand Final.

Works out to ~$35/month

  • Everything in Pro included
  • Locked in for the whole 2026 season
  • Priority Discord channel
  • No monthly billing to worry about

One-time payment · Full season access

FAQRisk & legality

Questions. Answered.

Direct answers to the questions that matter before you use Crux as part of your weekly workflow.

Bets where the maths is on your side
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